How Many Jobs Would Be Killed?

Opponents of Measures 66 and 67 say if passed, the tax increases would cost 70-thousand fulltime jobs in Oregon. Sounds incredible and it is. If the measures passed, over 90-percent of businesses in Oregon would either see no tax increase or would see their state corporate taxes go from $10 a year to $150 dollars a year. Why would a business need to layoff an employee because they have to pay $140 more a year.

Another way to look at it: The taxes in total would raise 365-million dollars a year. Divide that by 70-thousand jobs and you get $5000 per job. In other words, for 70-thousand jobs to be lost, the average fulltime job would have to pay $5000 a year.

So how can the measures' opponents say 70-thousand jobs? It is because they are talking about potential jobs that they think would be created in the future unless the measures pass. They are talking about ghost jobs. But if the tax measures fail, there is no question that jobs in the public sector would be lost ....teachers, other school workers, home health aides, mental health workers, state police, prison guards. As many as ten thousand of them.

Seven years ago, as a result of Oregon's last recession, a budget shortfall closed schools around the state, cut 50-thousand people from the Oregon Health Plan, and meant an end to service for more than two thousand disabled seniors that helped keep them in their homes. This time the Legislature decided to plug an even bigger shortfall by tapping its relatively new rainy day fund, accepting federal stimulus dollars, cutting budgets--yes state employees are earning less money this year--and increasing taxes on those that can most afford it, the wealthiest two and a half percent of Oregonians and large businesses who now have the third lightest tax load in the country and would have the fifth lowest if the measures pass.

Also, a couple that earns 260-thousand dollars would pay an additional two hundred dollars a year. If we say no to that plan, there's no reason to think what happened seven years ago won't happen again this year.